IN THIS ISSUE
$BTC and #crypto see double-digit correction!
$ETH tags the PumpChaserZone as volume continues to decline
Total Altcoin marketcap retests previous all-time highs
Overall market kicks into consolidation
Last week we saw a number of warning signs on the charts that suggested a correction may be imminent. Volume on the majors was in decline, HTF Chaos PRZ’s were being tagged left and right. Laser eye mania was in full effect!
These warning signs spurred us into a discussion about risk management and “paying yourself” after what had been an incredibly bullish period. I’m not in the business of calling tops, in-fact, my main point was that calling tops is for suckers.
Instead, I entertained the idea of taking profit and rolling those profits into “less volatile” assets like #Bitcoin, #Ethereum & Stablecoins. I myself was heavily exposed throughout the week last week, aping into large positions in what could only be described as an absolute ape orgy.
Over the weekend I saw even more warning signs that the latest push into the high 50k’s on $BTC and low 2k’s on $ETH was going to potentially act as a local high. It took me over 24 hours to make a decision, but on Sunday afternoon, I did it. I nuked over 60% of my portfolio back into USDT.
It felt weird, it wasn’t easy, but I knew that no matter what happened from there, I was paid. My profit was in hand, and I could re-visit the market once I saw a more bullish opportunity emerge. The writing was on the wall, I couldn’t ignore it anymore.
It’s not easy to take your foot off the gas in hot markets, it takes practice. Lessons learned in blood. Pain… The best thing you can do to prepare yourself for future success, is to journal your experiences and reflect on how you can improve your process moving forward.
If you learned a painful lesson this week, consider it an educational opportunity. Reflect. Adjust. Step away for a few days if you need to, and settle back in with a deeper understanding of the market, and yourself.
The markets aren’t going anywhere, they’ll be here through it all, but the participants will change over the years. The strong will survive. Those who take it upon themselves to “do the work” will thrive for years to come. Don’t sleep on the valuable opportunity for growth that has been presented.
Now to the market… The HTF trend is still up, the $DXY continues its consolidation/weakness, and today we saw closure on the Tether situation from the NY attorney general.
$18.5m settlement paid after 2.5m pages of documentation over 2 years. The 550m Bitfinex loan has been repaid and USDT will now produce quarterly transparency reports to the public!
This is incredibly bullish news, putting to rest what has widely been regarded as the primary fear proxy in crypto for years. How interesting that this news should drop at the depths of a 28% correction on Bitcoin!
$BTCUSD is navigating local throwback levels around 47-48k at the time of writing. The weekly view suggests that we could see a correction as deep as the mid-30k’s while still maintaining a “healthy” bullish structure.
At some point, it makes sense to see price tag the 20-week SMA which often makes for an outstanding entry on the long side during a bull market. The 20 SMA is slowly catching up to price, and if we consolidate around here, they could meet sometime in March.
BTC DOMINANCE WEEKLY
$BTC dominance is holding up at the 60% Wyckoff check level that I highlighted last week. Squeezing between the HTF downtrend line. Expecting some more consolidation here while the market re-stabilizes and traders shuffle positions, trying to catch the next move. Whatever way we break from this level, will give us the forecast for the coming weeks!
$ETHUSD saw a much more intense correction this week, smacking off the .382 throwback that marks the top of the #PumpChaserZone on the weekly log chart. Volume gave us a clear indication that the move to 2k was on fumes, and buyers were losing interest.
Will the high fees and slow transaction speeds that have been pricing out the majority of users continue to drive traffic to other, faster chains like Binance Smart Chain & Solana? The current price action in the market points towards a slow down in $ETH dominance as new players hit their stride.
$ETHBTC didn’t hold up in the Pump Chaser Zone as I’d hoped but anyone who took it upon themselves to lay stink bids on the 20 week SMA as outlined in last week’s article, were rewarded for their patience, if not squeezed a little shortly after.
We’re into Reload Zone (RLZ) territory now on the #altcoin leading indicator pair and should be watching very closely for signs of bullish reversal on the lower timeframes this week!
The #Altcoin perp made new highs at the peak. However, this perp product may not be the best indicator for overall Altcoin volume. Still, it’s expected that we’ll need to consolidate now for a few days/weeks at least while the market finds its bearing.
DEFI PERP WEEKLY
The #DeFi perp gave the tiniest hint of exhaustion last week, seeing its first decline in buy volume while tagging the Chaos PRZ. Yesterday we saw a sharp drop into the #pumpchaser zone that I assume will kick off a period of consolidation. Patience now while we most likely form a triangle on the daily.
Altcoin Total Marketcap
All this chaos amounted to a bullish retest of the previous all-time high on the total marketcap for #altoins. After 8 straight weeks of green, we can’t be too bothered by this shakeout in general. Looking back at the 2017 cycle, you’ll notice multiple such occurrences. This is normal.
So if you found yourself on the wrong side of this correction, take some time to figure out how you could have played it differently. Or did you need to? Is your plan to hold through for a much larger timeframe target? Are you comfortable grinding through a multi-week/month correction if needed?
As traders and speculators, we need to establish who we want to be in the market. Make a plan that fits that vision and adjust it as we learn new things. I’ll continue to share what I see in the market and help our readers grow right along with me as I work my way to 10,000 hours of trading experience.
If you haven’t already, you can follow me on Twitter @randomtask555 & subscribe to our youtube channel (youtube.com/c/Hxrolabs). Due to popular demand, I’ll be posting a lot more “short” videos with market updates and TA mini-tutorials in the coming weeks.
You can catch CryptoMessiah’s “Shitcoin Church” today, Tuesday, 2/23 2:30PM EST, our new show “Delta-Fi” on Wednesdays at 3PM EST and my solo stream “Hxro Labs LIVE” on Fridays at 3PM EST.
Hope to see you all there, have a great day! And whatever you do… ALWAYS play from a position of strength!
The following commentary is provided for informational purposes only and may not represent the views of Hxro Games Ltd. or its affiliates, and should not be viewed as legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice. Digital asset transactions are inherently risky, and you are fully and solely responsible for evaluating your purchasing decisions at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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