IN THIS ISSUE
- El Salvador Announces Plan To Make Bitcoin Legal Tender
- FBI recovers “most” of the BTC from the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack
- Bitcoin breaks down from recent consolidation pattern
- ETH/BTC re-tests critical level!
With Bitcoin Miami in the rearview, the crypto industry is back to work this week, albeit with a few lingering hangovers I’m sure… Despite having to miss out on the festivities myself, the break from multiple calls a day was a welcome reprieve. The market continues to move sideways and down, for the most part, the dopamine sucked out of the room week after week while we clean up the charts.
All this in the midst of what is likely the most significant development in Bitcoin’s history. Nayib Bukele, the new president of El Salvador announced a bill that will make Bitcoin legal tender in their country. A bold move for a new leader in a country where roughly 70% of the population does not have a bank account.
Jack Maller of Strike, made the announcement at Bitcoin Miami last weekend, seen here: https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1401327906178191366?s=20
Naturally, there are all kinds of opinions swirling around on what this will mean for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency as a whole. Some are calling it a “nothing burger” due to the small size of the country and the questionable political/social history in SV. But to me, there is really no way to view this as anything, but macro bullish & further validation of what Bitcoin represents. Hard Money.
I expect SV to be the first of many countries to move in this direction, and we’re already seeing hints from nearby countries that they too will be exploring the possibilities around Bitcoin.
Things could get very political here in the near future. The US government relies on aid & sanctions to control other countries and this could be seen as a threat to that model and raise concerns if it becomes a trend. Despite the fact that SV has no current plans to “de-dollarize” their economy, according to their secretary of commerce and investment, Miguel Kattan.
Here is an interesting bit of insight from a local SV citizen: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/nt8hi6/im_from_el_salvador_and_im_here_to_clarify_some/
The fact that the Price of Bitcoin fell in the days following this development really speaks to the state of the market, and to the value of patience while the charts get cleaned up.
The FBI also made headlines this week after allegedly recovering 63.7 of the 69.6 BTC that was paid to hackers in the recent Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack. There were many who prematurely speculated that this MUST mean the Bitcoin blockchain was compromised somehow. But if that were the case, we’d know by now, because the price of Bitcoin would likely be in the absolute gutter.. Sub $5,000 or worse. Miners, whales, insiders etc. would abandon ship in a heartbeat if the core blockchain were ever compromised in a significant way. We would miss the “trade”.
The more likely case is that the FBI used a warrant to gain access to US-based servers that allowed them to access the wallets being used by the hackers. Apparently, they’d never heard of a hardware wallet. Ooof.
I’m sure we’ll get more clarity on this throughout the week!
There is an interesting click-through rabbit hole here for anyone that would like to read more on the topic: https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1402179970277982210?s=20
Bitcoin is testing the key support level again on the weekly. I won’t lie, it doesn’t look great overall. My BULL token and spot longs from last week were stopped out yesterday and I’m back to mostly cash in my trade account. I still think the only trade to take here would be a long, but I’m ready to be patient and let the market show me a better setup.
Things can change very quickly, and I wouldn’t be shocked at this point by a 1-2k+ candle in either direction. We never got the retest of the 20-week MA or short RLZ but we’re also in a market that’s only responding to bearish news at the moment. It sucks, but it just is what it is, and it too shall pass. So, I’m Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA’ing) slowly, and waiting.
The daily shows fresh bearish market structure confirmed last night but today’s drop came on a potential bullish divergence. I’d lean bearish with the structure vs. two unconfirmed momentum divergences. The mixed signals continue and speak to the challenging market state we’re in for traders.
From this view, I’m expecting a test of the high timeframe reload zone that begins around $26,700. I think it would be “odd” for that to come straight away before any kind of squeeze up to make life miserable for the late bears, but it’s not out of the question.
The BTC exchange outflows hit their highest level of the year on this drop which is generally bullish and suggests that large amounts of Bitcoin have been purchased and are now being moved into a hold position. Hopium always tastes great!
Ethereum continues to hold up better than Bitcoin this week and is still trading above the 20-week moving average. Price wasn’t able to make it up to my key level so more waiting on the horizon for this one. No real changes.
ETH/BTC is likely the most important chart for me this week. Price has moved up into the short RLZ that I’ve been watching and is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. In a market where I admittedly missed out on the short setups presented in my own analysis, I’d like to keep a close eye on this one and act on it if the setup comes in.
For now, this looks like a successful S/R flip where price has reclaimed the key breakdown level around 0.075 and could consolidate then continue higher from here. A close above local highs would confirm this in my view. However, if price were to lose this level, it would trigger a short setup for me that would target the .618 Fib level down at 0.062.
Moreover, it would be a signal that BTC dominance will rise in the mid-term, and most altcoin vs. BTC pairs will revisit their lows or make new ones. I’ve got alerts set for “less than 0.074313” and “more than 0.077594”.
BTC Dominance is near the low end of the local consolidation range which gives me a slight bearish lean on the ETH/BTC chart presented above. I still think we’ll see BTC dominance drop off heavily in the long-term as new assets emerge and DeFi takes over the world, but at this time, I think it’s more probable we’ll see a short-mid term recovery while other alts cool off.
TOTAL ALTCOIN MARKETCAP
I excluded the Altcoin and DeFi perps because they look almost the exact same as last week. Consolidation, sideways, boredom. Both look heavy today obviously.
The total Altcoin marketcap continues to trade above the 20-week MA, slowly grind up with it while the market takes a breather. A close below the 20-week MA would be a hard signal to ignore given the price history and how they’ve interacted during bull vs. bear markets. This is another one to keep a close eye on and one the bulls will hope to see resolve bullishly here in the very-near future.
The builders continue to build and the breadcrumbs leading toward global adoption of crypto continue to drop each week. My long-term thesis grows stronger with each new development, and while I can think of much better market states to trade, there is nothing about the local price action that has shaken my long-term views.
I’m holding some spot positions (~30%), waiting with some dry powder (~70%) for more favourable conditions, and doing what I can each week to grow as an analyst and a trader.
Find what you love in life and build towards it! The market isn’t going anywhere and crypto is almost certainly here to stay.
I’ll continue to keep you updated on all the hottest opportunities I can find in the space, until next time, have a great week, and whatever you do, always play from a position of strength!
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The following commentary is provided for informational purposes only and may not represent the views of Hxro Games Ltd. or its affiliates, and should not be viewed as legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice. Digital asset transactions are inherently risky, and you are fully and solely responsible for evaluating your purchasing decisions at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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