IN THIS ISSUE
- The B Word panel discussion puts Elon back in the good books
- Bitcoin rallies $3,650 off the lows in under 24 hours!
- Fear & Greed dives to 10 (Extreme Fear)
- Patent granted for a new form of stablecoin backed by government debt
We’re seeing the first hint of bullish energy in the market today in what seems like a LONG time… Bitcoin broke the HTF range lows to open the week, sat just below around $29,500 yesterday, and has blasted back into range this morning.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index locked in another low score of 10, tying the yearly lows for the 4th time in 3 months. As I’ve discussed before, this is generally a signal that the time for me to be looking mid-term long has arrived.
The B Word Panel Discussion
Cathie Wood, Elon Musk & Jack Dorsey are going live at the time of writing to discuss Bitcoin. There is a buzz in the market as to what they may say. Some think it’s “buy the rumour, sell the news” today, citing Elon + SNL re: Doge as an example. Others are speculating that insiders are buying prior to their panel going live.
You can watch it back, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zwx_7XAJ3p0
- Elon Musk owns Bitcoin, Ethereum & Doge
- Tesla and SpaceX are also holding Bitcoin
- “I’m a fan of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency” – Elon Musk
- “Tesla may begin accepting Bitcoin again soon, once we’ve done some more diligence on the type of energy being used to mine Bitcoin” – Elon Musk
My guess is we’ll see price cool off following this event. If we do see price reverse into August, the market sentiment will take time to shift back to bullish, so I don’t expect it will be straight up to the highs again. We’ve already seen a near 4k rise in Bitcoin price over the last 14 hours.
Bears are lurking, and they’ll make a stand sooner or later, which will hopefully give me an opportunity to add to my holdings on a bullish throwback near range lows.
A New Type of Stablecoin
In the news today, FVBank in Puerto Rico was granted a patent for a new type of stablecoin. The patent holders Nitin Agarwal & Miles Paschini describe “Yuga Coin” as a “Tokenized crypto asset backed by sovereign debt”.
They have plans to create multiple stable coins that are government-friendly, Know-Your-Customer (KYC), anti-money laundering and Financial Action Task Force (FATF) compliant.
As regulators around the world have set their sights on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins in 2021, this is an intriguing development from the founders of FVBank, and could mark the beginning of a new wave of competition in the stablecoin sector.
You can read the whole story here: https://www.coindesk.com/yuga-coin-stablecoin-fiat-government-debt-us-patent
On-chain analytics still point towards the low 30k’s being an accumulation range for large holders. Glassnode data suggests that wallets holding 1k-10k BTC have added 96,044 BTC to their stack over the last 3 weeks.
Whales have been buying the fear. They've now added +96,044 BTC to their holdings in the last 3 weeks. pic.twitter.com/JRBOgrrD1P— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) July 21, 2021
Bitcoin has been coiling up near the range lows since the beginning of the month and after breaking below $30k briefly to open the week, has finally shown the early signs of reversal that I’ve been watching for.
Looking at the daily, I see multiple momentum divergences on indicators like MACD, RSI & OBV. All suggesting that the momentum of this down move is wearing off, and that a mid-term reversal COULD be imminent.
I’ve drawn up a line chart to capture this visual more clearly. Right now I’m watching for a break of the daily RSI downtrend. In many cases RSI will breakout before price, so this could prove to be a valuable signal to watch for this week. I’ve set an RSI alert at 49.06 and will add to my spot holdings if that fires.
I’ve illustrated what a Gann 50/50 retrace could look like through the next 50 days. This is a concept I discussed on stream a couple of weeks ago here:
There are plenty of levels to consider along the way, that we’ll look at in the coming weeks, but on the HTF, this is what a proper retrace would look like.
Zooming into the 4 hour range, this is a scenario I’m watching for through the end of the week and perhaps over the weekend. A reversal in the 4-hour trend doesn’t confirm until price breaks above whatever high we end up getting on this initial squeeze up. I’ll be hunting for long setups around range low/trendline retest levels between $30,500-$31,500 in another attempt to front run that confirmation.
If the confirmation does come in, there will be plenty of opportunities to gain exposure to the move that follows, so no one should feel pressured to try and front run said confirmation like I intend to. It’s very risky, and has admittedly cost me a few losing trades in the last month. But, remember I’m risking small on these trades. I don’t need to be a hero or “try to make it all back in one trade”
Ethereum is perking up right along with Bitcoin today as you’d expect. Now trading back above $2,000 after tagging the HTF .618 fib level for the 3rd time in as many months. This trendline is admittedly somewhat subjective, in that it’s not drawn perfectly from wick to wick. It’s borderline “made to fit” but I put it on the chart because it puts this correction in perspective, at least the way I’m viewing it.
The Gann 50/50 target, if it plays out, would see Ethereum reach a price of $3,029 sometime around August 25th. This is purely speculative, but I’ve seen such reverberations playout to a T many times, so this time, I plan to look for setups that could get me on board. Invalidated if price were to make another local low.
ETH/BTC looks ready to move up off the major confluence level that included a previous 1.618 fib extension, 4.669 Chaos PRZ and the HTF .382 that markets the entry to the Pump Chaser Zone (PCZ).
Learn more about the PCZ here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2hNvPb092g&t=469s
The market structure on the weekly is still bearish, so anything up towards the short squeeze objective should be seen as a bearish retest. Same goes for all these charts, but in all cases, I’d prefer to trade UP to those levels, just in case we get there, and instead of reversing, just breakout to the upside. I’m still not convinced that we have to endure a long-term bear market right now.
This month’s price action is coming up on a last stand of sorts, from my view. The time to spark a HTF continuation or slip into a longer-term bear is growing closer every day. As before, I’ve still got my portfolio positioned with a healthy balance of BTC and cash. I’d like to start moving that cash back into position aggressively, if we see a proper trend reversal on the 4hr sometime in the next 3-5 days.
I’ll continue to keep you updated on the state of the market each week! Until next time, have a great week, and whatever you do, always play from a position of strength!
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The following commentary is provided for informational purposes only and may not represent the views of Hxro Games Ltd. or its affiliates, and should not be viewed as legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice. Digital asset transactions are inherently risky, and you are fully and solely responsible for evaluating your purchasing decisions at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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